Further analysis

In my last post I described me misplaying a contract but getting away with it. After publishing it I got thinking more about the hand and what I could have worked out before even playing a card. It's always hard to do analysis after the fact so stop me when this turns from a genuine analysis to an exercise in hindsight.

If you haven't read the previous post don't as it'll make this easier to follow. I'll repeat the important bits of the hand here:

♠ 7 3 ♥ A J 9 7 5 2 ♦ A 9 ♣ K T 5		♠ K T 5 2 ♥ Q 5 ♦ Q T 5 4 3 2 ♣ A

North	East	South	West
Pass	Pass	1♣	2♥
3♣	4♥	Pass	Pass
Pass

North leads the 4 of clubs Ace from the table, 8 from South and time to stop and think.

First things first, we have 23 high cards between us leaving 17 for the defense. Presuming both defenders have their bids opener might have 11 or 12 and responder 5 or 6. The clubs we've seen so far and the three level bid holding only 6 highs indicates North has 5 clubs and South only 4.

Now holding only 4 clubs and a minimum opening why has South neglected a 1NT opening? All the 4333 or 4432 hands would fit 1NT and anything with a longer suit would be opened that suit instead. The only answer is a 4441 shape. The modern convention is to open black singletons a diamond and red singletons the suit underneath. Which is an odd way of saying bid diamonds if you got em. The only 4441 opened 1♣ is 4=4=1=4.

	♠ ? ? ? ♥ ? ♦ ? ? ? ? ♣ ? ? ? ? ?
♠ 7 3 ♥ A J 9 7 5 2 ♦ A 9 ♣ K T 5		♠ K T 5 2 ♥ Q 5 ♦ Q T 5 4 3 2 ♣ A
	♠ ? ? ? ? ♥ ? ? ? ? ♦ ? ♣ ? ? ? ?

Back to the values. There's the  ♠AQJ, ♥K, ♦KJ and ♣QJ. Given North didn't lead a big club we can assume that South has at least one of those honours. What do we need to make 4♥?