Last guess

A couple of posts back I was talking about never being the last to guess. What that really means is guess early and then leave it. Once you've guessed don't change your mind. Sounds like a mandate for wanton aggression justified by "Daniel said guessing was good". I don't want to hear about it. Here's a hand that was bid slowly and carefully to the par spot:

Vul: All Dealer: South	♠ 8 x x x ♥ J ♦ J T x x x ♣ T x x
♠ A Q J x x ♥ x x x ♦ x ♣ A Q x x		♠ K T x x ♥ A K Q x x x ♦ x ♣ 9 x
	♠ - ♥ T x x ♦ A K Q x x x ♣ K J x x

South	West	North	East
1♦	1♠	Pass	2♦
3♦	4♠	5♦	6♠
Pass	Pass	7♦	Pass
Pass	X	end

I was West on this particular deal. My 4♠ might be a touch aggressive but that's IMPs for you. There's some other calls in there that might not be your choice but it's not a bad auction. Hold your palm up to your screen obscuring the hand enough to pretend you're East. Then think about this auction:

South	West	North	East
1♦	1♠	5♦	?

Now what? What you interpret 5♥ as here? You're going to bid 5♠ just because 5 over 5 is always right though aren't you. Can you really bid 6♠ when partner might hold:

♠	A Q J x x
♥	x x
♦	K x
♣	Q x x x

You won't even make 5 on that layout! Punishing partner for suggesting a good lead against no trumps isn't the way to play bridge. My point is that North has got the ability to work out that it's correct to sacrifice presented with all the information he just didn't guess a round earlier. Of course the first thing to do once you've learnt something is to unlearn it:

Vul: E/W Dealer: West	♠ K Q 4 ♥ Q ♦ J T 9 3 2 ♣ A Q 7 3
♠ J ♥ 8 4 ♦ A K 8 6 ♣ K J T 6 5 2		♠ A T 9 8 6 3 ♥ 9 7 6 ♦ Q 7 ♣ 9 4
	♠ 7 5 2 ♥ A K J T 5 3 2 ♦ 5 4 ♣ 8

West	North	East	South
1♣	Pass	1♠	5♥
X	end

Ouch.